Rambling Lemurian

Thank Jebus, Election Day is almost here. I’ve already shared some of my thoughts a couple weeks ago. I absolutely hate the fact that I have to have so much anxiety surrounding this election and the very idea that Donald Trump might somehow be elected President again. I often wonder if everything that happened after November 1st, 2016 is some kind of simulation that my floating consciousness dreamt up while in “Reality” I’m dead. It started with getting a girlfriend, which was unusual for me, who turned into my wife. Then the Cubs won the World Series. I’m convinced that’s not supposed to happen in Reality. Then Donald Trump fulfilled the Mark Groening prophecy and was elected President despite being a clown of a person. His entire Presidency felt like a weird fever dream, followed by a Pandemic. Somehow I became a dad, Joe Biden is somehow a Progressive, and I’m writing a blog for no one. And despite the insanity of our universe and everything that’s happened in the past 8+ years, we’re still seriously considering this clown and his fascist allies? What gives, man? Send me back to 2015, please, and let’s try a reboot of the past decade.

Anyway I’m just eager for all of this to be over. I can’t deal with all the hyperbolic headlines claiming this newest scandal is surely the one that brings down Trump and the MAGA movement. And all the insane cognitive dissonance from the right-wingers and Cult 45 members trying to justify their hatred of “the left” and acceptance of blatant racism, sexism, xenophobia, and queerphobia in the name of imagined future gas prices.

Whatever, I’m done. So here’s what I think is going to happen after playing around on 270ToWin.com.

• Harris wins all the swing states except Arizona.
• I would not be shocked if Harris pulls off the upset in either Ohio, Florida, or Texas. It’d be absolutely devastating long-term if the GOP loses any of these, especially Texas. So I don’t want to get my hopes up too high by officially projecting of them them to turn blue, but I think it’s possible one of these flip.
• That said, I think Colin Allred defeats Ted Cruz.
• Two surprising flips to Dems will be Iowa and Kansas.
  • Iowa really isn’t that surprising. They voted for Obama twice, and historically flip between the two parties. More pollsters should really consider Iowa to be a swing state.
  • Kansas will be a surprise, but recent polling suggests there’s an opening there for the Democrats. I also suspect that the Taylor Swift effect could impact voters there, with how Swift is connected to the Chiefs fanbase. Yes, I know Kansas City is technically Missouri. But I think Missouri is more securely Red than Kansas at the moment.
• Arizona will go back to Red, mainly due to concerns about the border.
• White women will redeem themselves for 2016 and propel Harris to victory.
• The election will be officially called for Harris by Wednesday night. We will not have a repeat of 2020 where we had to wait an excruciating 4-5 days for networks to declare a winner.
• Trump will simultaneously declare victory and fraud at 7:01pm Tuesday Night.
• Traditional GOP Leadership (aka, the secretly not MAGA) will breathe a sigh of relief when Harris wins by enough of a margin that efforts to overturn the election through another fake elector scheme will fail. Trump/Johnson cannot pull it off if there’s a gap of 40-50 electoral points, IMO. They may invalidate one blue states results anyway like Nevada or something but it will not be immediately consequential to the election results.
  • But this will result in “significant” election reform debates and legislation in Congress’ next term. Though the Electoral College is here to stay.
• There will be some isolated reports of seemingly organized right-wing violence and attempts to halt the counting of votes. But the GOP will more strongly denounce such attempts even if Trump and his cult encourages it.
• Trump’s hold on elected members of the GOP will largely end. But the cult will not go away. Once he dies (hopefully in a lot of pain and with his children fighting over the tattered remains of his empire), they will follow another. It won’t be Vance. It will be someone more charismatic, more successful, and more dangerous to the future of the United States.